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16/10/20

A new wartime economy according to Ludovic Subran

Every year since 2013, Ludovic Subran has been invited to talk to Monaco Economic Board members on strategic topics related to a region or an event with a global impact, such as Russia, Brazil, USA and the New Silk Road. Each time, Ludovic Subran comes at it from a different angle, as innovative as it is realistic. 

 

Despite the covid-secure distance required that saw the meeting held remotely, the Chief Economist of the Allianz Group and credit insurer at Euler Hermes more than lived up to his reputation. In a talk entitled ‘How to do business in a wartime economy?’ he reviewed major trends in the global economy as it tackles covid-19, and ways to bounce back.

 

Ludovic Subran spoke of a new wartime economy, one that is “not one of reconstruction or destruction but one where fear of an invisible threat weighs heavily on savings, consumption, investment and intervention decisions”.

 

He also discussed the unprecedented aspect of this economic crisis, namely the “forgotten” risks blocked by the pandemic and its consequences which could boomerang back to bite, starting with Brexit. Other subjects reviewed included countries’ different monetary responses to the crisis, delays not only in investments but also bankruptcies, and cash reserves that are not being spent due to prudence and influence of the November American election results. He ended by outlining avenues for a successful relaunch to finish another illuminating, wide-ranging and constructive session that was much enjoyed by all.  

 

Lastly, the MEBinaire did not deviate from the usual format with a Q&A session at the end for the speaker. For example, when asked about which investments to prioritise for companies, Ludovic Subran cited human resources to ensure resilience; digitisation which has become essential; and external growth as there will be many opportunities for buyouts in the near future. As to his choice of a sector to launch into, the economist suggests the care service industry for the elderly and dependent. A promising industry which paradoxically is all about people and proximity which still have their place in an increasingly digitised, globalised world. 

You can watch the full webinar HERE