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17/06/21

Christophe Barraud, an oracle of the economy in Monaco

Monaco Economic Board hit the jackpot with its first major phygital event of the year when it invited oft-cited world’s best forecaster Christophe Barraud. For MEB members he delivered his macroeconomic scenario for the coming months.

Age just 34, Christophe Barraud is Chief Economist and Strategist at Market Securities, a key independent player in the finance world based in London and present in many places around the world. But there’s more, according to Bloomberg he is the world’s best forecaster on USA statistics (since 2012), earning the same distinction for China and the Euro Zone.

To an audience of 70 economic players at the Novotel Monte-Carlo, in front of cameras broadcasting his talk with simultaneous translation in English to a total of 150 delegates, Christophe Barraud gave the main thrust of his forecast: a marked recovery worldwide with growth exceeding 6% for the year 2021.

Such optimism he says, which may vary from region to region, can be explained by four major factors: first, the effectiveness and acceleration in distribution of Covid-19 vaccines have given confidence a shot in the arm while the last wave of the epidemic appears to be under control in the vast majority of developed economies.

Secondly, the arrival of Joe Biden has served to ease trade tensions, notably with Europe as highlighted by the Airbus-Boeing truce. Above all, it has allowed businesses to up their profile, freed from the threat of unpredictable tweets. In this context, Christophe Barraud forecasts growth of around 10% globally in volume of goods traded in 2021. Third factor, whatever the cost to governments that could put measures in place, it allowed households to save more, creating an excess that should contribute to the recovery as consumption resumes. Finally, the economist underlined the ultra-accommodating monetary policy in developed countries. All in all, the combined balance sheet of the G7 central banks has increased by more than $10 trillion in the space of 15 months (February 2020 to May 2021).

The situation is not without risks, however. Among other threats, the forecaster pointed to the presence of variants that could derail the health situation, the risk of social upheavals – history teaches us that the end of a pandemic has always been accompanied by a rise in inequality – or overheating which threatens real estate in the USA.

Concluding his remarkably clear presentation, given the complexity of the topic, Christophe Barraud was more than happy to answer questions from delegates before joining Monegasque entrepreneurs at a Covid-compatible cocktail.

His talk marks a successful return to MEB in-person activities. Other events are in the diaries for the coming weeks including the General Assembly coupled with the ever-popular Members Rendezvous to the delight of members eager to see each other face to face at “their” events.

 

MEB Press Contacts:

Delphine Quilichini / Benoît Ulrich: presse@meb.mc

 

More information on Christophe Barraud:

https://www.christophe-barraud.com