On Friday 16 September at the Hermitage Monte-Carlo, the Chairman of Cahiers Verts de l’Economie, Jean-Pierre Petit, spelt out his global macro-economic vision packed with valuable information and forecasts at a talk organised in partnership with Jutheau Husson. It was attended by H.E. the Minister of State Mr Pierre Dartout.
Jean-Pierre Petit is not a speaker who stands still. Microphone in hand he explained his points clearly, moving from table to table, questioning some, calling out to others, slipping in a wise word or anecdote to make his point when challenged. In a nutshell, those among the 120+ entrepreneurs present not familiar with this dynamic speaker, who has been coming to Monaco every year since 2018, were not disappointed by the content and delivery of this one-man economic forecast show.
The Chairman of Cahiers Verts de l’Economie [LCV Research, an independent investment strategy consultancy firm] examined the consequences for Europe of the Ukrainian conflict, a war expected to be short and sharp but which, according to the economist, is set to last due to a lack of rationale among leaders in Moscow.
The gas crisis shaking the Old Continent, with its repercussions for energy prices in general is far from over, he says. Assumptions made of a 15% drop in consumption and diversification of imports and production will not be enough to cover all energy needs. Sectors like heavy industry, transport, food products and textiles could be particularly impacted by the situation.
More generally, there is a global slowdown in activity. China’s zero approach to managing the health crisis has prevented it picking up the growth baton to the detriment of the whole region. For Jean-Pierre Petit, among major economies the United States is performing best, but not brilliantly, thanks to being less dependent on outside energy. As for Europe, it is right to protect households with extensive measures.
Despite the risk of an inflation loop, he believes supporting business will help limit the growth decline and social conflicts at a reduced price, due to actual rates still being negative. On inflation, the economist believes we are reaching a global peak with the exception of Europe which could see indexes continue to rise into next year.
From a financial point of view, long-term rates will also peak, and when it comes to stocks and shares, Jean-Pierre Petit calls for caution as according to him the upward trend in the market has not yet begun.
The economist was more than happy to take questions at the end of a talk which impressed the experts and less informed alike, thanks to the talents of this speaker.
The next MEB talk will be on Tuesday 4 October during the Monaco Business show, with speaker Christophe Barraud, Chief Economist and Strategist at Market Securities.
Photo 1: l-r MEB Chairman Michel Dotta; H.E. Pierre Dartout, Minister of State, Jean-Pierre Petit, Chairman of Cahiers Verts de l’Economie; Hervé Husson, Chairman Jutheau Husson.
Photo 2: Jean-Pierre Petit speaking to 120 representatives of MEB member companies and officials.