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21/09/21

Jean-Pierre Petit unpicks impact of health crisis on the global economy

On 17 September, Jean-Pierre Petit, President of Cahiers Verts de l’Économie, delivered his prognosis on the Delta variant’s impact on the global economic recovery to entrepreneurs in the Principality. A talk organised jointly by Monaco Economic Board and Jutheau Husson* it was attended by a 100 MEB members and personalities.

It’s the question everyone is asking: is the Delta variant incompatible with economic recovery? Economist Jean-Pierre Petit did not keep up the suspense for long, responding in the negative. For the President of Cahiers Verts de l’Economie, a reference in the field of macro-economic analysis and investment strategy advice: “We will continue to live with this virus, we will not eradicate it. Of course, cases may rise sharply with the Delta variant but the vaccination significantly limits the risk of ending up in hospital. Nearly 30% of the global population is already double-vaccinated, that’s around 50% of global GDP,” he says.  


Heading for 4% growth in 2022

According to the expert, the global economy has held up well with annual growth of around 6% in the third quarter of 2021 and the fourth quarter is set to be equally satisfactory (5.5%), thanks to the east Asia bounce back. The Delta variant “would have had a more negative effect on supply constraints than on demand due to the drop in mobility”. For 2022, Jean-Pierre Petit is banking on growth being 4%. 


But with the effects of Covid on production chains (raw materials, semi-conductors, etc.), high inflation, and on a geopolitical level the Taliban victory, with all that implies (notably the USA’s diminished credibility in the competition with Beijing), everything is far from perfect.

But in brushing aside the latest political news that risks impacting the market (tensions between China and America, threat to Taiwan, elections in Germany), the economist was upbeat in betting on equity markets continuing to rise. The expert also offered sound advice to Monegasque investors in a dynamic presentation that was like music to the ears of an audience enlightened by this most complex of international situations.

*Monegasque insurance broker, Jutheau Husson (formerly Ascoma Jutheau Husson) recently changed its name.

Our guest speaker: Jean-Pierre Petit

President of Cahiers Verts de l’Économie since 2009, before that Jean-Pierre Petit was Director of Economic Research and Strategy at Exane-BNP Paribas (1999-2008) and Deputy Director Economic Studies at BNP (1995-1999).

Author of numerous award-winning books, this former IMF consultant was six times voted best market economist (2002 to 2007) at the Grands Prix de l’Analyse Financière organised by Extel-Agefi in France.  He is a regular guest of MEB and Jutheau Husson.

 

Press contact: Benoît Ulrich / Delphine Quilichini - presse@meb.mc

 

 Photo 1 l-r: Balthazar Seydoux - President Commission des Finances et de l’Economie Nationale at the National Council, Guillaume Rose – MEB Executive Director General, Michel Dotta – MEB Chairman, Hervé Husson – Chairman of Jutheau Husson, Jean-Pierre-Petit – President of Cahiers Verts de l’Economie,  Laurent Stefanini – France’s Ambassador to Monaco. (credits MEB / Carte Blanche)